Probabilities play an essential role in decision-making, whether consciously or not. On any given day,
you mightfor exampleconsider the probability that it will rain or that there will be traffic on your
way to work. Even though in these cases you do not calculate the actual probability, as suggested by
Costello, Watts, and Fisher (2018) in your recommended readings this week, you make an estimate
using mechanisms that follow standard probability theory, but are subject to random error.
For this discussion, complete the following tasks:
1. Describe a real-life scenario in which you consider probabilities.
2. Discuss the importance of estimating probabilities in this example.
Requirements: 300 words
APA style when referencing
- Costello, F., Watts, P., & Fisher, C. (2018). Surprising rationality in probability judgment: Assessing two competing models. Cognition, 170, 280-297.
- Yechiam, E., Abofol, T., & Pachur, T. (2017). The seller’s sense: Buyingselling perspective affects the sensitivity to expected value differences. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 30(2), 197-208.
"Place your order now for a similar assignment and have exceptional work written by our team of experts, guaranteeing you A results."